Warning of War
LIVE --:-- UTC

GLOBAL MARITIME CHOKE POINTS

Nine waterways. The world's freight in motion.

Operational status of the world's most strategically significant maritime choke points — from the Strait of Hormuz to Dover. Updated every three hours from open-source signals.

Average risk
4.7/10
across 9 choke points
Elevated
3
elevated risk
Disrupted
2
active disruption

Latest run · 11:13 UTC

Bab-el-Mandeb / Southern Red Sea

Disrupted
8/10

~9 million bpd oil; principal route between Suez and the Indian Ocean; ~12% of global trade transits

The Bab-el-Mandeb / Southern Red Sea corridor remains operationally disrupted, with the continued divergence of major carriers onto the Cape of Good Hope route keeping container freight rates elevated…

View brief

Strait of Hormuz

Elevated
7/10

~20 million bpd crude oil & condensate — ~30% of global seaborne oil; ~20% of global LNG

The Strait of Hormuz remains under elevated commercial risk amid Iran's announcement of new 'service fees' for transiting vessels, directly contravening U.S. warnings and introducing a novel complianc…

View brief

Suez Canal

Disrupted
7/10

~12% of global seaborne trade; ~30% of global container traffic; ~9 million bpd oil

The Suez Canal is experiencing a partial, cautious resumption of transits, led by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd reinstating their Gemini alliance service through the canal following a security re-evaluation.…

View brief

Turkish Straits (Bosphorus & Dardanelles)

Elevated
5/10

~3 million bpd oil; principal outlet for Black Sea grain, oil, and natural gas

The Turkish Straits remain under elevated operational risk, primarily driven by the continued conflict in Ukraine and escalating EU sanctions packages targeting Russian energy exports. Ukrainian drone…

View brief

Danish Straits

Elevated
5/10

~3 million bpd Russian crude & products; principal Baltic outlet for Russian seaborne oil

The Danish Straits, as the principal Baltic outlet for Russian seaborne crude and products, are experiencing elevated commercial risk driven by the ongoing EU sanctions trajectory and Ukrainian strike…

View brief

Taiwan Strait

Normal
3/10

~40% of global container fleet transits annually; primary north-south Pacific shipping corridor

No specific operational disruption signals for the Taiwan Strait are present in current headlines; TSM equity trading activity in the news feed reflects financial market positioning rather than mariti…

View brief

Panama Canal

Normal
3/10

~5% of global maritime trade; ~13,000–14,000 transits per year in normal conditions

No specific operational disruption signals for the Panama Canal are present in current headlines. The canal is operating within normal parameters following the easing of drought-related draft restrict…

View brief

Strait of Malacca

Normal
2/10

~16 million bpd oil; ~30% of global maritime trade; principal artery between Indian and Pacific Oceans

No specific operational disruption signals for the Strait of Malacca are present in current headlines. The strait continues to function as the principal artery for Indian-to-Pacific Ocean trade, proce…

View brief

Strait of Dover / English Channel

Normal
2/10

~25% of global commercial maritime traffic by ship count; ~500 vessels per day

No specific operational disruption signals for the Strait of Dover or English Channel are present in current headlines. The strait continues to process approximately 500 commercial vessels per day, re…

View brief

Read the full methodology →

Important: Warning of War provides AI-generated risk intelligence from public open-source data. Output is informational only — not investment advice, official assessment, or operational guidance.